{"id":478539,"date":"2023-08-09T09:34:29","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T09:34:29","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2023-10-30T16:23:04","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T16:23:04","slug":"prophet","status":"publish","type":"wiki","link":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wiki\/prophet\/","title":{"rendered":"ti\u00ean tri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prophet l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ed9ng t\u00ednh trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5. N\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1edfi nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u1ea1i Facebook v\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m ngu\u1ed3n m\u1edf.<\/p>\n<h2>L\u1ecbch s\u1eed ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1ec1 n\u00f3<\/h2>\n<p>Prophet ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh b\u1edfi nh\u00f3m Khoa h\u1ecdc d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a Facebook v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2017. M\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng. Vi\u1ec7c tri\u1ec3n khai n\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng Python v\u00e0 R gi\u00fap nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u00e0 n\u00f3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u1edd kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n<h2>Th\u00f4ng tin chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 Prophet: M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1<\/h2>\n<p>Prophet \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian nh\u1edd t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. C\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft sau \u0111\u00e2y m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri:<\/p>\n<h3>C\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/strong>: X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u.<\/li>\n<li><strong>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5<\/strong>: Ghi l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5<\/strong>: C\u00e1c t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n d\u00e0nh cho ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5 ho\u1eb7c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1eef li\u1ec7u.<\/li>\n<li><strong>L\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n<\/strong>: Xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean m\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n<\/h3>\n<p>Prophet s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ed9ng g\u1ed9p k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n<h2>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac b\u00ean trong c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri: Nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o<\/h2>\n<p>Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Prophet \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5 gia k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c nhau:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/strong>: Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ho\u1eb7c logistic theo chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian.<\/li>\n<li><strong>T\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5<\/strong>: T\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u1edbi chu\u1ed7i Fourier.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5<\/strong>: Danh s\u00e1ch ng\u00e0y do ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5 ho\u1eb7c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a khung M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ed9ng g\u1ed9p t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t (GAM) v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Stan, m\u1ed9t ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh.<\/p>\n<h2>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c t\u00ednh n\u0103ng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>M\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn thi\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u<\/strong>: X\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ecb thi\u1ebfu m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i thay th\u1ebf.<\/li>\n<li><strong>T\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5<\/strong>: T\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u1eabu theo m\u00f9a.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5<\/strong>: Cho ph\u00e9p l\u1eadp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uy\u1ec3n chuy\u1ec3n<\/strong>: Cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t trong vi\u1ec7c l\u1eadp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng theo m\u00f9a.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng<\/strong>: C\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c t\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1edbn.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u00ean tri: B\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 danh s\u00e1ch<\/h2>\n<p>Ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ti\u00ean tri, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ea5u h\u00ecnh cho c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00e1c nhau:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>D\u1ea1ng sinh tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/th>\n<th>S\u1ef1 mi\u00eau t\u1ea3<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n n\u00e0o.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00e3o h\u00f2a.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>C\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Ti\u00ean tri, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng<\/h2>\n<p>Nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng<\/li>\n<li>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n<\/li>\n<li>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft<\/li>\n<li>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n giao th\u00f4ng<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Trang b\u1ecb qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c<\/strong>: \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5 kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c<\/strong>: Th\u00eam th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5 ho\u1eb7c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Th\u1eddi gian t\u00ednh to\u00e1n<\/strong>: \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh thang \u0111o tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>C\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng so s\u00e1nh kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>T\u00ednh n\u0103ng<\/th>\n<th>ti\u00ean tri<\/th>\n<th>ARIMA<\/th>\n<th>L\u00e0m m\u1ecbn theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00fang<\/td>\n<td>KH\u00d4NG<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00fang<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng linh ho\u1ea1t<\/td>\n<td>Cao<\/td>\n<td>Th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<td>Trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>X\u1eed l\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ecb thi\u1ebfu<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00fang<\/td>\n<td>KH\u00d4NG<\/td>\n<td>KH\u00d4NG<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u1ec5 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng<\/td>\n<td>Cao<\/td>\n<td>Trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>Trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri<\/h2>\n<p>Prophet ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n n\u00f3. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>C\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n n\u00e2ng cao \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh si\u00eau tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00edch h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c.<\/li>\n<li>Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n chuy\u00ean d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>C\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ho\u1eb7c li\u00ean k\u1ebft m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7 proxy v\u1edbi Prophet<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00e1c m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7 proxy gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7 do OneProxy cung c\u1ea5p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi Prophet \u0111\u1ec3 thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u tr\u00ean web, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u an to\u00e0n v\u00e0 \u1ea9n danh, c\u00e1c m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7 proxy n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n<h2>Li\u00ean k\u1ebft li\u00ean quan<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/facebook.github.io\/prophet\/\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/research.fb.com\/blog\/2017\/02\/prophet-forecasting-at-scale\/\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Blog nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u00ean Facebook v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\">Trang web OneProxy<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y, Prophet n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian, ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho nhi\u1ec1u \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng. S\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7 proxy c\u00e0ng n\u00e2ng cao ti\u1ec7n \u00edch c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, cho ph\u00e9p qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":491170,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-478539","wiki","type-wiki","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"faq_title":"Frequently Asked Questions about <mark>Prophet: An In-Depth Analysis<\/mark>","faq_items":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/478539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/wiki"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/478539\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/491170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=478539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}