{"id":475955,"date":"2023-08-09T07:24:43","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T07:24:43","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2024-06-11T19:24:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T19:24:00","slug":"auto-regressive-models","status":"publish","type":"wiki","link":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wiki\/auto-regressive-models\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0917\u093e\u092e\u0940 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0938\u093e\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0940\u092f \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0917 \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u094b \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923, \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u091b\u0935\u093f \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923 \u0938\u0939\u093f\u0924 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092a\u0939\u0932\u0947 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947 \u0917\u090f \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0930 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u0928 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0909\u092a\u092f\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u091c\u093f\u0928\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0925\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0935\u093e\u0926\u0940 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0905\u0924\u094d\u092f\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0940 \u0938\u093e\u092c\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u0941\u090f \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u093e \u0907\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938 \u0914\u0930 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u092a\u0939\u0932\u093e \u0909\u0932\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0916<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0935\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0923\u093e 20\u0935\u0940\u0902 \u0938\u0926\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0936\u0941\u0930\u0941\u0906\u0924 \u0938\u0947 \u091a\u0932\u0940 \u0906 \u0930\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u092e\u0947\u0902 1927 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0936 \u0938\u093e\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0940\u0935\u093f\u0926\u094d \u092f\u0942\u0932 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0905\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u093e\u092e \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0925\u093e\u0964 \u0939\u093e\u0932\u093e\u0902\u0915\u093f, \u092f\u0939 1940 \u0915\u0947 \u0926\u0936\u0915 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u091c\u094d\u091e \u0928\u0949\u0930\u094d\u092c\u0930\u094d\u091f \u0935\u0940\u0928\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0915\u093e\u092e \u0925\u093e \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0928\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u0941\u0928\u093f\u0915 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u0940\u0902\u0935 \u0930\u0916\u0940 \u0925\u0940\u0964 \u0938\u094d\u091f\u094b\u0915\u0947\u0938\u094d\u091f\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0930\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u092a\u0930 \u0935\u0940\u0928\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0936\u094b\u0927 \u0928\u0947 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u0915\u093e\u0938 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0924\u0948\u092f\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u0948\u0938\u093e \u0915\u093f \u0939\u092e \u0906\u091c \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&quot;\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935&quot; \u0936\u092c\u094d\u0926 \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0939\u0932\u0940 \u092c\u093e\u0930 1920 \u0915\u0947 \u0926\u0936\u0915 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0902\u0924 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0930\u0917\u094d\u0928\u0930 \u092b\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0915 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0905\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0936\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u0947\u0936 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0925\u093e\u0964 \u092b\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0915 \u0928\u0947 \u0907\u0938 \u0936\u092c\u094d\u0926 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u090f\u0915 \u0910\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0923\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u094b \u090f\u0915 \u091a\u0930 \u0915\u094b \u0909\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u094d\u0935\u092f\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0921\u093c\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u0930\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927 \u0935\u093e\u092a\u0938 \u0932\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u090f\u0915 \u091a\u0930 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0909\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0947 \u0905\u0924\u0940\u0924 \u092a\u0930 \u092a\u0915\u0921\u093c \u0932\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0948\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932: \u0935\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0943\u0924 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0948\u0938\u093f\u0935 (AR) \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0906\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0915 \u0909\u092a\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0928\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0910\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0930 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0930\u0948\u0916\u093f\u0915 \u0924\u0930\u0940\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0907\u0928\u0915\u093e \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0905\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0936\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u094d\u0930, \u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924, \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u0939\u093e\u0901 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u091a\u0932\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p><h3>\u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u0940\u092f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0928\u093f\u0927\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0935<\/h3><p>\u0906\u0926\u0947\u0936 \u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u0938\u094d\u0935\u0924\u0903-\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0917\u093e\u092e\u0940 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> (AR(p)) \u0915\u094b \u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:\n<span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>1<\/mn><\/msub><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msub><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>2<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><mo>\u22ef<\/mo><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b5<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">Y_t = \\phi_1 Y_{t-1} + \\phi_2 Y_{t-2} + \\cdots + \\phi_p Y_{tp} + \\epsilon_t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.8333em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2778em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2778em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9028em; vertical-align: -0.2083em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9028em; vertical-align: -0.2083em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.6667em; vertical-align: -0.0833em;\"><\/span><span class=\"minner\">\u22ef<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9805em; vertical-align: -0.2861em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.1514em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2861em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2861em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.5806em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03b5<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p>\u0915\u0939\u093e\u0901:<\/p><ul><li><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092f_\u091f<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.8333em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0938\u092e\u092f \u092a\u0930 \u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0915\u093e \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f \u0939\u0948 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u091f\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.6151em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>.<\/li><li><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>1<\/mn><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mo>\u2026<\/mo><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\phi_1, \\phi_2, \\ldots, \\phi_p<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9805em; vertical-align: -0.2861em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"minner\">\u2026<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.1514em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2861em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0917\u0941\u0923\u093e\u0902\u0915 \u0939\u0948\u0902.<\/li><li><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>2<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mo>\u2026<\/mo><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">Y_{t-1}, Y_{t-2}, \\ldots, Y_{tp}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9694em; vertical-align: -0.2861em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"minner\">\u2026<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2861em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f \u0939\u0948\u0902.<\/li><li><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u03b5<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\epsilon_t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.5806em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03b5<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0938\u092e\u092f \u092a\u0930 \u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f \u0936\u092c\u094d\u0926 \u0939\u0948 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u091f\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.6151em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 \u0906\u092e\u0924\u094c\u0930 \u092a\u0930 \u0936\u0942\u0928\u094d\u092f \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u091a\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0936\u094d\u0935\u0947\u0924 \u0936\u094b\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0915\u093e \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0923 (\u092a\u0940)<\/h3><p>\u0906\u0926\u0947\u0936 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u090f\u0906\u0930 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u091a\u092f\u0928 \u092e\u0939\u0924\u094d\u0935\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902\u0915\u093f \u092f\u0939 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0947 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u0905\u0935\u0932\u094b\u0915\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0907\u0938\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u090f\u0915 \u0938\u092e\u091d\u094c\u0924\u093e \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u0948:<\/p><ul><li><strong>\u0928\u093f\u091a\u0932\u093e \u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e<\/strong> \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (\u091b\u094b\u091f\u0947 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>) \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u092d\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0938\u0902\u0917\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0915\u0921\u093c\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u093f\u092b\u0932 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e\u0938\u094d\u0935\u0930\u0942\u092a \u0905\u0902\u0921\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u0909\u091a\u094d\u091a \u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e<\/strong> \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (\u092c\u0921\u093c\u0947 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>) \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u091c\u091f\u093f\u0932 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0915\u0921\u093c \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0932\u0947\u0915\u093f\u0928 \u0913\u0935\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0915\u093e \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u0939\u093e\u0902 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0905\u0902\u0924\u0930\u094d\u0928\u093f\u0939\u093f\u0924 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0930\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u091c\u093e\u092f \u092f\u093e\u0926\u0943\u091a\u094d\u091b\u093f\u0915 \u0936\u094b\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0923\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><\/ul><p>\u0907\u0937\u094d\u091f\u0924\u092e \u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0924\u0930\u0940\u0915\u0947 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e:<\/p><ul><li><strong>\u0906\u0902\u0936\u093f\u0915 \u0911\u091f\u094b\u0938\u0939\u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927 \u092b\u093c\u0902\u0915\u094d\u0936\u0928 (PACF)<\/strong>: \u0909\u0928 \u092e\u0939\u0924\u094d\u0935\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0905\u0902\u0924\u0930\u093e\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0939\u091a\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u093f\u090f\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u0938\u0942\u091a\u0928\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u0902\u0921<\/strong>: \u0905\u0915\u093e\u0907\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0942\u091a\u0928\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u0902\u0921 (\u090f\u0906\u0908\u0938\u0940) \u0914\u0930 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938\u093f\u092f\u0928 \u0938\u0942\u091a\u0928\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u0902\u0921 (\u092c\u0940\u0906\u0908\u0938\u0940) \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u0902\u0921 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u091a\u0941\u0928\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092b\u093f\u091f \u0914\u0930 \u091c\u091f\u093f\u0932\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u0924\u0941\u0932\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>.<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/h3><p>\u092e\u093e\u092a\u0926\u0902\u0921\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0928\u093e <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>1<\/mn><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mo>\u2026<\/mo><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03c6<\/mi><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\phi_1, \\phi_2, \\ldots, \\phi_p<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.9805em; vertical-align: -0.2861em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"minner\">\u2026<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.1667em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03c6<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.1514em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2861em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u0907\u0938\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u094b \u0910\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0938\u093e\u0930 \u092b\u093c\u093f\u091f \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0939 \u0928\u093f\u092e\u094d\u0928 \u0924\u0915\u0928\u0940\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p><ul><li><strong>\u0928\u094d\u092f\u0942\u0928\u0924\u092e \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0917 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/strong>: \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0924 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u093f\u0924 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u091a \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0917 \u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u094b \u0928\u094d\u092f\u0942\u0928\u0924\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915\u0924\u092e \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/strong>: \u0909\u0928 \u092e\u093e\u092a\u0926\u0902\u0921\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0922\u0942\u0902\u0922\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u094b \u0926\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0935\u0932\u094b\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915\u0924\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0921\u093e\u092f\u0917\u094d\u0928\u094b\u0938\u094d\u091f\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0938<\/h3><p>AR \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u094b \u092b\u093f\u091f \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0926, \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0930\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924\u0924\u093e \u0915\u093e \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0906\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0915 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0928\u093f\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u091c\u093e\u0901\u091a \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p><ul><li><strong>\u0905\u0935\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923<\/strong>: \u092f\u0939 \u0938\u0941\u0928\u093f\u0936\u094d\u091a\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0905\u0935\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f (\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0902) \u0936\u094d\u0935\u0947\u0924 \u0936\u094b\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0939\u094b\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u092f\u0939 \u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u092d\u0940 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0905\u0938\u094d\u092a\u0937\u094d\u091f\u0940\u0915\u0943\u0924 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u091b\u094b\u0921\u093c\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u0932\u091c\u0941\u0902\u0917-\u092c\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923<\/strong>: \u092f\u0939 \u0906\u0915\u0932\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0905\u0935\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u092d\u0940 \u0938\u094d\u0935\u0938\u0939\u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927 \u0936\u0942\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0939\u0924\u094d\u0935\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917<\/h3><p>AR \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092c\u0939\u0941\u092e\u0941\u0916\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u092a\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p><ul><li><strong>\u0905\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0936\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924<\/strong>\u0938\u094d\u091f\u0949\u0915 \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u0940\u092e\u0924\u094b\u0902, \u092c\u094d\u092f\u093e\u091c \u0926\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0947\u0924\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940<\/strong>\u0924\u093e\u092a\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937\u093e \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u0905\u092d\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0915\u0940<\/strong>\u0938\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0928\u0932 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0923 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0923\u093e\u0932\u0940\u0964<\/li><li><strong>\u091c\u0948\u0935 \u0938\u093e\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0940<\/strong>\u091c\u0948\u0935\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u093f\u0902\u0917\u0964<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u0932\u093e\u092d \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0940\u092e\u093e\u090f\u0901<\/h3><p><strong>\u0932\u093e\u092d:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>\u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928\u094d\u0935\u092f\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u0930\u0932\u0924\u093e \u090f\u0935\u0902 \u0906\u0938\u093e\u0928\u0940\u0964<\/li><li>\u092e\u093e\u092a\u0926\u0902\u0921\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u094d\u092a\u0937\u094d\u091f \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0964<\/li><li>\u0905\u0932\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0935\u0927\u093f \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0940\u0964<\/li><\/ul><p><strong>\u0938\u0940\u092e\u093e\u090f\u0901:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>\u0930\u0948\u0916\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948.<\/li><li>\u092e\u091c\u092c\u0942\u0924 \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u092f\u093e \u0917\u0948\u0930-\u0930\u0948\u0916\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0947 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u092a\u0930\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li><li>\u0906\u0926\u0947\u0936 \u0915\u0947 \u091a\u092f\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f \u0938\u0902\u0935\u0947\u0926\u0928\u0936\u0940\u0932 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u092a\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u092a\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.625em; vertical-align: -0.1944em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u092a\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>.<\/li><\/ul><h3>\u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923<\/h3><p>\u0938\u092e\u092f \u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f AR(2) \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (\u0911\u0930\u094d\u0921\u0930 2) \u092a\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u091a\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902:\n<span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><mn>0.5<\/mn><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><mn>0.2<\/mn><msub><mi>\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/mi><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>2<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b5<\/mi><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">Y_t = 0.5 Y_{t-1} + 0.2 Y_{t-2} + \\epsilon_t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.8333em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2778em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2778em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.8917em; vertical-align: -0.2083em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\">0.5<\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.8917em; vertical-align: -0.2083em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\">0.2<\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right: 0.22222em;\">\u0935\u093e\u0908<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.3011em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.2222em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2083em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right: 0.2222em;\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.5806em; vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u03b5<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.2806em;\"><span style=\"top: -2.55em; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0.05em;\"><span class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height: 2.7em;\"><\/span><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\" style=\"height: 0.15em;\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n\u092f\u0939\u093e\u0901, \u0938\u092e\u092f \u092a\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0928 <span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u091f\u0940<\/mi><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\u091f\u0940<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"strut\" style=\"height: 0.6151em;\"><\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">\u091f\u0940<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u0926\u094b \u0938\u092e\u092f \u092c\u093f\u0902\u0926\u0941\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u092a\u0930 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0928\u0915\u0947 \u0917\u0941\u0923\u093e\u0902\u0915 \u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0936\u0903 0.5 \u0914\u0930 0.2 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0908 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u091c\u094b \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0928 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u092c\u0926\u094d\u0927 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u0915\u0943\u0937\u094d\u091f\u0924\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0906\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0926\u0915 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u092e\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0901<\/strong>: \u092f\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0928\u090f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u0947 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u091c\u094b \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u0947 \u092e\u093f\u0932\u0924\u0947 \u091c\u0941\u0932\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0935\u0943\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0920 \u0914\u0930 \u091b\u0935\u093f \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923 \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0930\u091a\u0928\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917\u0940 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>FLEXIBILITY<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u092e\u093e\u092f\u094b\u091c\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f \u0921\u094b\u092e\u0947\u0928 \u0924\u0915 \u0938\u0940\u092e\u093f\u0924 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u0928\u0915\u0947 \u0906\u0935\u0947\u0926\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u0924\u093f \u092e\u093f\u0932\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0935\u093f\u0935\u0947\u091a\u0928\u0940\u092f\u0924\u093e<\/strong>: \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u0930\u091a\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u093e\u0926\u0917\u0940 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u092e\u093e\u092a\u0926\u0902\u0921\u094b\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0906\u0938\u093e\u0928 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u0924\u093f \u0926\u0947\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0942\u0932\u0928 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u092e\u0924\u093e<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092c\u0926\u0932\u0924\u0947 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0942\u0932 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0928\u0908 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0930\u0942\u092a\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0906\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u094d\u092f\u0947\u0915 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0940 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0941\u0916\u094d\u092f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (\u090f\u0906\u0930\u090f\u092e\u090f)<\/strong>: \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0940 \u0926\u094b\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0930\u0916\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0941\u090f \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0914\u0938\u0924 \u0918\u091f\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u091c\u094b\u0921\u093c\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (ARIMA)<\/strong>: \u0917\u0948\u0930-\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u090f\u0906\u0930\u090f\u092e\u090f \u0915\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (SARIMA)<\/strong>: ARIMA \u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923, \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0909\u092a\u092f\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0935\u0947\u0915\u094d\u091f\u0930 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 (VAR)<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u0939\u0941\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928\u0930\u0942\u092a\u0940 \u0935\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0930, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0924\u092c \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0915\u0908 \u091a\u0930 \u090f\u0915-\u0926\u0942\u0938\u0930\u0947 \u0915\u094b \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0932\u0949\u0928\u094d\u0917 \u0936\u0949\u0930\u094d\u091f-\u091f\u0930\u094d\u092e \u092e\u0947\u092e\u094b\u0930\u0940 (LSTM) \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915<\/strong>: \u090f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0906\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0940 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915 \u091c\u094b \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0932\u0902\u092c\u0940 \u0926\u0942\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0915\u0921\u093c \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0930 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u0923 \u092a\u0939\u091a\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u091f\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0938\u092b\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0930 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932<\/strong>: \u090f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915 \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0915\u093f\u091f\u0947\u0915\u094d\u091a\u0930 \u091c\u094b \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u0938\u093e\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u094b \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0935\u093e\u0926 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0920 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0940 \u0938\u092b\u0932\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0928\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1061\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/auto-egressive-model.png\" alt=\"\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0911\u091f\u094b\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0948\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\" class=\"wp-image-505503\" title=\"\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0911\u091f\u094b\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0948\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/auto-egressive-model.png 1061w, https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/auto-egressive-model-150x62.png 150w, https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/auto-egressive-model-768x318.png 768w, https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/auto-egressive-model-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1061px) 100vw, 1061px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0911\u091f\u094b\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0948\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u092f\u0939\u093e\u0902 \u0907\u0928 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u092e\u0941\u0916\u094d\u092f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0936 \u0926\u0947\u0928\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u090f\u0915 \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u093e \u0924\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0926\u0940 \u0917\u0908 \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u093e<\/th><th>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u0910\u0902<\/th><th>\u0906\u0935\u0947\u0926\u0928<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u0905\u0930\u092e\u093e<\/td><td>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928, \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c<\/td><td>\u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0905\u0930\u093f\u092e\u093e<\/td><td>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928, \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921, \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c<\/td><td>\u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e, \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0941\u091d\u093e\u0928<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0938\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e<\/td><td>\u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928, \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921, \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c<\/td><td>\u091c\u0932\u0935\u093e\u092f\u0941 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e, \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0935\u0940\u090f\u0906\u0930<\/td><td>\u092c\u0939\u0941\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928\u0930\u0942\u092a\u0940, \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928<\/td><td>\u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u0915 \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u093f\u0902\u0917<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u090f\u0932\u090f\u0938\u091f\u0940\u090f\u092e<\/td><td>\u0906\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0915 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915<\/td><td>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u091f\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0938\u092b\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0930<\/td><td>\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930, \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0928\u093e\u0902\u0924\u0930 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923<\/td><td>\u092a\u093e\u0920 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923, \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0935\u093e\u0926<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0947 \u0924\u0930\u0940\u0915\u0947, \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u0938\u092e\u0938\u094d\u092f\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0909\u0928\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0928<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0908 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/strong>: \u0938\u094d\u091f\u0949\u0915 \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u0940\u092e\u0924\u094b\u0902, \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928, \u092f\u093e \u0935\u0947\u092c\u0938\u093e\u0907\u091f \u091f\u094d\u0930\u0948\u092b\u093c\u093f\u0915 \u0915\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923<\/strong>: \u092a\u093e\u0920 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923, \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0935\u093e\u0926, \u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u091b\u0935\u093f \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923<\/strong>: \u091c\u0947\u0928\u0930\u0947\u091f\u093f\u0935 \u090f\u0921\u0935\u0930\u0938\u0948\u0930\u093f\u092f\u0932 \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915 (\u091c\u0940\u090f\u090f\u0928) \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u092f\u0925\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0935\u093e\u0926\u0940 \u091b\u0935\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0902 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0938\u0902\u0917\u0940\u0924 \u0930\u091a\u0928\u093e<\/strong>: \u0928\u090f \u0938\u0902\u0917\u0940\u0924 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0914\u0930 \u0930\u091a\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0938\u0902\u0917\u0924\u093f \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u092f\u0947<\/strong>: \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0906\u0909\u091f\u0932\u0947\u0930\u094d\u0938 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0939\u091a\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0905\u092a\u0928\u0940 \u0916\u0942\u092c\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0935\u091c\u0942\u0926, \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u0941\u091b \u0938\u0940\u092e\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0932\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0935\u0927\u093f \u0938\u094d\u092e\u0943\u0924\u093f<\/strong>: \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0947\u0902 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0932\u0902\u092c\u0940 \u0926\u0942\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0915\u0921\u093c\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u0920\u093f\u0928\u093e\u0908 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0913\u0935\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0902\u0917<\/strong>: \u0909\u091a\u094d\u091a-\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0947 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u094b\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u0923 \u0913\u0935\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e<\/strong>: ARIMA-\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0906\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0935\u0939\u093e\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0939\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u091a\u0941\u0928\u094c\u0924\u0940\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0907\u0928 \u091a\u0941\u0928\u094c\u0924\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0936\u094b\u0927\u0915\u0930\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0928\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0906\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0940 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915 (\u0906\u0930\u090f\u0928\u090f\u0928)<\/strong>: \u0935\u0947 \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u0926\u0940\u0930\u094d\u0918\u0915\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u094d\u092e\u0943\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094d\u0937\u092e\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0928\u093f\u092f\u092e\u093f\u0924\u0940\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0924\u0915\u0928\u0940\u0915<\/strong>: \u0909\u091a\u094d\u091a-\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0913\u0935\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0915\u094b \u0930\u094b\u0915\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u0905\u0902\u0924\u0930<\/strong>: \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e\u0940 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930<\/strong>: \u091f\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0938\u092b\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0930 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0932\u0902\u092c\u0940 \u0926\u0942\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u0941\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u092e\u0941\u0916\u094d\u092f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0936\u092c\u094d\u0926\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0901<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u093e \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0930 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0938\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (\u090f\u092e\u090f) \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932<\/strong>: \u0915\u0947\u0935\u0932 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0940 \u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u091a \u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927 \u092a\u0930 \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0947\u0902\u0926\u094d\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902, \u091c\u092c\u0915\u093f \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u091a\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u092a\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u091a\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (\u090f\u0906\u0930\u090f\u092e\u090f) \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u0918\u091f\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u092f\u094b\u091c\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u0915 \u0926\u0943\u0937\u094d\u091f\u093f\u0915\u094b\u0923 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (ARIMA) \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932<\/strong>: \u0917\u0948\u0930-\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u092f\u0939\u093e\u0902 \u0907\u0928 \u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u091a \u092e\u0941\u0916\u094d\u092f \u0905\u0902\u0924\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0909\u091c\u093e\u0917\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u090f\u0915 \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u093e \u0924\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0926\u0940 \u0917\u0908 \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u093e<\/th><th>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937\u0924\u093e\u0910\u0902<\/th><th>\u0906\u0935\u0947\u0926\u0928<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 (\u090f\u0906\u0930)<\/td><td>\u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0917\u092e\u0928<\/td><td>\u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (\u090f\u092e\u090f)<\/td><td>\u092a\u093f\u091b\u0932\u0940 \u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0917\u092e\u0928<\/td><td>\u0936\u094b\u0930 \u092b\u093c\u093f\u0932\u094d\u091f\u0930\u093f\u0902\u0917<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (\u090f\u0906\u0930\u090f\u092e\u090f)<\/td><td>\u090f\u0906\u0930 \u0914\u0930 \u090f\u092e\u090f \u0918\u091f\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0902\u092f\u094b\u091c\u0928<\/td><td>\u0938\u092e\u092f-\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928, \u0936\u094b\u0930 \u092b\u093c\u093f\u0932\u094d\u091f\u0930\u093f\u0902\u0917<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0940\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921 \u092e\u0942\u0935\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u090f\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c (ARIMA)<\/td><td>\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u0902\u0924\u0930<\/td><td>\u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e, \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0941\u091d\u093e\u0928<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u094d\u092f \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u094c\u0926\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0917\u093f\u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0902<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0917\u0939\u0928 \u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0938\u0902\u0938\u094d\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0917\u0924\u093f \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0915\u0930, \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0935\u093f\u0915\u0938\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0947 \u0930\u0939\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u094b\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u091c\u091f\u093f\u0932 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0941\u0915\u0932\u093e<\/strong>: \u0936\u094b\u0927\u0915\u0930\u094d\u0924\u093e \u091f\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0938\u092b\u0949\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0930 \u0914\u0930 \u090f\u0932\u090f\u0938\u091f\u0940\u090f\u092e \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0915\u093f\u091f\u0947\u0915\u094d\u091a\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u091c\u091f\u093f\u0932 \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915 \u0938\u0902\u0930\u091a\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u092f\u094b\u091c\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u090f\u0902\u0917\u0947\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930<\/strong>: \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0932\u0902\u092c\u0940 \u0926\u0942\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0922\u093c\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0924\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u094b \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0937\u094d\u0915\u0943\u0924 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0915\u0941\u0936\u0932 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923<\/strong>: \u092c\u0921\u093c\u0947 \u092a\u0948\u092e\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u092e\u094d\u092a\u094d\u092f\u0942\u091f\u0947\u0936\u0928\u0932 \u0906\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0915\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0915\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u093e\u0938 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u092c\u093f\u0928\u093e \u092a\u0930\u094d\u092f\u0935\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0940\u0916\u0928\u093e<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u092c\u093f\u0928\u093e \u092a\u0930\u094d\u092f\u0935\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0924 \u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e, \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0915\u093f \u0935\u093f\u0938\u0902\u0917\u0924\u093f \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0928\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0928\u093f\u0927\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0935 \u0938\u0940\u0916\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u092f\u093e \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0915\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u091c\u094b\u0921\u093c\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092e\u0939\u0924\u094d\u0935\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u092d\u0942\u092e\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0928\u093f\u092d\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u0916\u093e\u0938\u0915\u0930 \u0915\u0941\u091b \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u0902\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0939\u0923<\/strong>: \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0936\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0907\u0915\u091f\u094d\u0920\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u092f, \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0924\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0917\u0941\u092e\u0928\u093e\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u0935\u093f\u0927\u0924\u093e \u0932\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0924\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u093e \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0928\u093f\u0927\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0935 \u0938\u0941\u0928\u093f\u0936\u094d\u091a\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0938\u0902\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0927\u0928<\/strong>: \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0911\u0928\u0932\u093e\u0907\u0928 \u0938\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0924\u094b\u0902 \u0924\u0915 \u092a\u0939\u0941\u0902\u091a \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917\u0915\u0930\u094d\u0924\u093e \u0907\u0902\u091f\u0930\u0948\u0915\u094d\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0924\u093f\u0930\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092c\u093f\u0902\u0926\u0941\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093e\u0923 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0915\u094d\u0937\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f\u0940\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092e\u0926\u0926 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u092d\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0902\u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928<\/strong>: \u092c\u0921\u093c\u0947 \u092a\u0948\u092e\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u0941\u0936\u0932 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u094d\u0915\u0947\u0932\u0947\u092c\u0932 \u0924\u0948\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0938\u0941\u0928\u093f\u0936\u094d\u091a\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0941\u090f, \u0915\u0908 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0932\u094b\u0921 \u0935\u093f\u0924\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0917\u094b\u092a\u0928\u0940\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0941\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e<\/strong>: \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0940 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0915\u094d\u0932\u093e\u0907\u0902\u091f \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0930\u094d\u0935\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u091a \u092e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u0938\u094d\u0925 \u0915\u0947 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u0935\u0947\u0926\u0928\u0936\u0940\u0932 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0938\u0941\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u0917\u094b\u092a\u0928\u0940\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u090f\u0915 \u0905\u0924\u093f\u0930\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u092a\u0930\u0924 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0938\u092e\u094d\u092c\u0902\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u0932\u093f\u0902\u0915\u094d\u0938<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092a\u0930 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0906\u092a \u0928\u093f\u092e\u094d\u0928\u0932\u093f\u0916\u093f\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u0938\u093e\u0927\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wiley.com\/en-us\/Time+Series+Analysis%3A+Forecasting+and+Control%2C+5th+Edition-p-9781118675021\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u0938\u092e\u092f \u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923: \u091c\u0949\u0930\u094d\u091c \u092c\u0949\u0915\u094d\u0938 \u0914\u0930 \u0917\u094d\u0935\u093f\u0932\u0940\u092e \u091c\u0947\u0928\u0915\u093f\u0902\u0938 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0923<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mitpressjournals.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1162\/neco.1997.9.8.1735\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u0926\u0940\u0930\u094d\u0918\u0915\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915 \u0905\u0932\u094d\u092a\u0915\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915 \u092e\u0947\u092e\u094b\u0930\u0940 (\u090f\u0932\u090f\u0938\u091f\u0940\u090f\u092e) \u0928\u0947\u091f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0915<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/jalammar.github.io\/illustrated-transformer\/\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u091c\u092f \u0905\u0932\u092e\u093e\u0930 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0907\u0932\u0938\u094d\u091f\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091f\u0947\u0921 \u091f\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0938\u092b\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0930<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/an-introduction-to-time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-in-python-af7eeb238a64\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u092a\u093e\u092f\u0925\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0936\u094d\u0930\u0943\u0902\u0916\u0932\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0930\u093f\u091a\u092f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0911\u091f\u094b-\u0930\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0938\u093f\u0935 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e-\u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u090f\u0915 \u092e\u094c\u0932\u093f\u0915 \u0909\u092a\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u092c\u0928 \u0917\u090f \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0938\u091f\u0940\u0915 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u092f\u0925\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0935\u093e\u0926\u0940 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092a\u0940\u0922\u093c\u0940 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0915\u094d\u0937\u092e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947-\u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0907\u0938 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0938\u0902\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u0906\u0917\u0947 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0939\u092e \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0932\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0924\u0930\u0940\u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0924\u093f\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u092c\u0926\u0932\u093e\u0935 \u0932\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0941\u090f \u0914\u0930 \u092d\u0940 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0928\u0924 \u0914\u0930 \u0915\u0941\u0936\u0932 \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u0909\u092d\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0909\u092e\u094d\u092e\u0940\u0926 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":497623,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-475955","wiki","type-wiki","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"faq_title":"Frequently Asked Questions about <mark>Auto-regressive models: A Comprehensive Overview<\/mark>","faq_items":[{"question":"Question 1: What are Auto-regressive models?","answer":"Answer 1: Auto-regressive models are statistical models used to predict future values based on past observations. They are particularly effective for tasks involving sequential data, such as time-series analysis, natural language processing, and image generation. These models regress a variable against its own lagged values to capture dependencies and patterns in the data."},{"question":"Question 2: How did Auto-regressive models originate?","answer":"Answer 2: The concept of auto-regression dates back to the early 20th century, with contributions from statisticians such as Yule and economist Ragnar Frisch. The term \"auto-regressive\" was first introduced by Norbert Wiener in the 1940s, who laid the foundation for modern auto-regressive models through his work on stochastic processes and prediction."},{"question":"Question 3: How do Auto-regressive models work?","answer":"Answer 3: Auto-regressive models use past values of a variable to predict its current value. The model is trained using the method of least squares to estimate its parameters. Once trained, it can generate future values by recursively predicting based on its own past predictions."},{"question":"Question 4: What are the key features of Auto-regressive models?","answer":"Answer 4: Auto-regressive models offer sequence prediction, generative capabilities, flexibility, interpretability, and adaptability. They excel at forecasting future values in a time-ordered sequence and can generate new data samples resembling the training data. Their simplicity allows for easy interpretation, making them valuable in various applications."},{"question":"Question 5: What types of Auto-regressive models exist?","answer":"Answer 5: There are various types of Auto-regressive models, including Moving Average Auto-regressive (ARMA), Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Vector Auto-regressive (VAR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformer models. Each type has specific characteristics suitable for different applications."},{"question":"Question 6: How can Auto-regressive models be used, and what challenges do they face?","answer":"Answer 6: Auto-regressive models are used in time-series forecasting, natural language processing, image generation, music composition, and anomaly detection. However, they may struggle with long-term memory, overfitting, and the need for data stationarity in ARIMA-type models. Solutions include using RNNs for better long-term memory and regularization techniques to prevent overfitting."},{"question":"Question 7: How do Auto-regressive models compare to other time-series models?","answer":"Answer 7: Auto-regressive models are compared with Moving Average (MA) models, Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Each model has distinct characteristics, with ARIMA incorporating differencing for stationarity in non-stationary time-series data."},{"question":"Question 8: What are the perspectives and future technologies related to Auto-regressive models?","answer":"Answer 8: The future of Auto-regressive models involves more complex architectures, improved attention mechanisms for better long-range dependencies, and efforts to reduce training computational requirements. They will likely find applications in unsupervised learning, anomaly detection, and representation learning."},{"question":"Question 9: How are proxy servers associated with Auto-regressive models?","answer":"Answer 9: Proxy servers can enhance the performance of Auto-regressive models by anonymizing and diversifying data sources during data collection. They enable data augmentation, load balancing, and add an extra layer of privacy and security for sensitive applications using Auto-regressive models."},{"question":"Question 10: Where can I find more information about Auto-regressive models?","answer":"Answer 10: For further information, you can explore the book \"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control\" by George Box and Gwilym Jenkins, or learn more about Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks from the article \"The Illustrated Transformer\" by Jay Alammar. Additionally, you can find resources on time series analysis and forecasting in Python for practical insights."}]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/475955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/wiki"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/475955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":505505,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/475955\/revisions\/505505"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/497623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=475955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}