{"id":477156,"date":"2023-08-09T09:08:09","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T09:08:09","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2023-09-05T11:14:07","modified_gmt":"2023-09-05T11:14:07","slug":"exponential-smoothing","status":"publish","type":"wiki","link":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wiki\/exponential-smoothing\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627. \u0625\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 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\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n<p>\u0648(\u0631+1) = \u03b1 * \u062f(\u0631) + (1 - \u03b1) * \u0648(\u0631)<\/p>\n<p>\u0623\u064a\u0646:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>F(t+1) \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a t+1.<\/li>\n<li>D(t) \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0648\u062d\u0638\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a t.<\/li>\n<li>F(t) \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a t.<\/li>\n<li>\u03b1 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633\u060c \u0648\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0636\u0628\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 0 \u06481.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0648\u0645\u0639 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\u0645\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0638\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u064a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0641.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u062f\u0648\u062c (\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0647\u0648\u0644\u062a):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u062b\u0646\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 (\u03b1 \u0648 \u03b2).<\/li>\n<li>\u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u064a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0637\u064a\u064b\u0627.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u064a (\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0647\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0632):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u064a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 (\u03b1\u060c \u03b2\u060c \u0648\u03b3).<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u064a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u062e\u0637\u064a \u0648\u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u0646\u0645\u0637\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u064b\u0627.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/h2>\n<p>\u064a\u0648\u0641\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647 \u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0634\u0627\u0626\u0639\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0647\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0621.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646\u0629: \u0645\u0639 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0623\u0634\u0643\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0627\u062d\u0629 (\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0632\u062f\u0648\u062c\u0629 \u0648\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u064a\u0629)\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 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\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u062d: \u064a\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0627\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u0629 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>\u0623\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u064a\u0643\u062a\u0628<\/th>\n<th>\u0648\u0635\u0641<\/th>\n<th>\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637<\/td>\n<td>\u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629.<\/td>\n<td>\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u062f\u0648\u062c<\/td>\n<td>\u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u062b\u0646\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633.<\/td>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u064a<\/td>\n<td>\u064a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0646\u0639\u064a\u0645.<\/td>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0648\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645<\/h2>\n<p>\u064a\u062c\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628: \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0632\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0631\u064a\u062f.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a: \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0633 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\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u062b\u0644.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629: \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0635\u0639\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u062c\u0626\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629: \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629: \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0644\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644\u0629<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u0634\u0631\u0637<\/th>\n<th>\u0648\u0635\u0641<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/td>\n<td>\u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u062d \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643<\/td>\n<td>\u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u0644\u062a\u0633\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0646\u0627\u0641\u0630\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a<\/td>\n<td>\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0641\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0648\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 (ARIMA)<\/td>\n<td>\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u0648\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/h2>\n<p>\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0638\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u062a\u0647 \u0648\u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u062a\u0647. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0627\u064b \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0642\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631.<\/p>\n<h2>\u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0631\u0628\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 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\u0645\u062c\u0647\u0648\u0644\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0644 \u0644\u0625\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0645\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0647. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629.<\/p>\n<h2>\u0631\u0648\u0627\u0628\u0637 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629<\/h2>\n<p>\u0644\u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0643\u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Exponential_smoothing\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u0648\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0628\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0627 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/time-series-forecasting-with-exponential-smoothing-in-python-30d037a0d48d\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0628\u0627\u064a\u062b\u0648\u0646<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/otexts.com\/fpp2\/expsmooth.html\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u062f\u0626 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0645\u060c \u064a\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0648\u0639\u0629. \u0625\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630 \u062a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u0628\u064a \u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":468360,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-477156","wiki","type-wiki","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"faq_title":"Frequently Asked Questions about <mark>Exponential Smoothing: A Comprehensive Guide<\/mark>","faq_items":[{"question":"What is exponential smoothing?","answer":"<p>Exponential smoothing is a statistical technique used in time series analysis and forecasting. It assigns decreasing weights to past data points, with recent observations receiving higher importance. This method adapts to changing trends and seasonality, making it valuable for predicting future values based on historical data.<\/p>"},{"question":"Who introduced exponential smoothing?","answer":"<p>Exponential smoothing was first introduced by Robert Goodell Brown in 1956 through his paper titled \"Exponential Smoothing for Predicting Demand.\"<\/p>"},{"question":"How does exponential smoothing work?","answer":"<p>Exponential smoothing uses a smoothing parameter (alpha) to calculate forecasted values. The formula for forecasting at time t+1 is F(t+1) = \u03b1 * D(t) + (1 - \u03b1) * F(t), where F(t+1) is the forecasted value at time t+1, D(t) is the actual value at time t, and F(t) is the forecasted value at time t.<\/p>"},{"question":"What are the main types of exponential smoothing?","answer":"<p>There are three main types of exponential smoothing:<\/p><ol><li>Simple Exponential Smoothing: Uses one smoothing parameter and is suitable for data without trends or seasonality.<\/li><li>Double Exponential Smoothing: Utilizes two smoothing parameters and is effective for data with a linear trend but no seasonality.<\/li><li>Triple Exponential Smoothing: Incorporates three smoothing parameters and is ideal for data with trends and seasonality.<\/li><\/ol>"},{"question":"Where is exponential smoothing used?","answer":"<p>Exponential smoothing finds applications in various fields, including demand forecasting, financial analysis, and resource planning.<\/p>"},{"question":"What are the challenges with using exponential smoothing?","answer":"<p>Exponential smoothing models can be sensitive to the choice of smoothing parameters and may struggle to handle outliers or sudden changes in the time series data.<\/p>"},{"question":"How can the performance of exponential smoothing be improved?","answer":"<p>The performance of exponential smoothing can be improved through careful parameter optimization and preprocessing techniques like outlier detection and data transformation.<\/p>"},{"question":"Is exponential smoothing a future-proof technique?","answer":"<p>While exponential smoothing is likely to remain relevant due to its simplicity and effectiveness, advancements in machine learning and AI may introduce more sophisticated forecasting techniques in the future.<\/p>"},{"question":"How are proxy servers associated with exponential smoothing?","answer":"<p>Proxy servers can be used to mask the user's identity and location, making them useful when dealing with time series data in scenarios where anonymity is essential.<\/p>"}]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/477156","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/wiki"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wiki\/477156\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/468360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneproxy.pro\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=477156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}